The UK’s planned national digital ID scheme now has a headline cost attached, after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) gave its first public forecast alongside the government’s 2025 Budget. The OBR’s November Economic and Fiscal Outlook estimates that the programme will cost around £1.8 billion over three years from 2026–27 to 2028–29, split between roughly £1.1 billion of capital spending and about £700 million in resource spending.
According to reporting on the Budget, the digital ID card programme is grouped with other new policy measures that the OBR characterises as “unfunded,” meaning the spending has been scored without matching tax rises or offsetting cuts elsewhere. That classification raises questions about fiscal sustainability and the likelihood that the scheme will be delivered on the current timeline.
Government documents describe the national digital identity initiative as part of a broader push to modernise public services and reduce fraud by giving residents a reusable, government-backed credential for proving who they are across different channels, both online and in person. However, detailed implementation plans, including how the scheme will align with existing GOV.UK One Login services and private-sector identity checks, have not yet been published.
For CISOs and identity professionals, the OBR’s forecast is a signal that Westminster intends to move beyond piecemeal digital identity pilots toward a large-scale, centralized system. That raises long-term questions about architecture choices (centralized versus federated), linkage to biometric data, and how any national credential might coexist with emerging private wallets and passkey-based authentication.
The announcement comes amid fierce opposition to the government’s mandatory digital ID plan for workers, with a petition against the scheme surpassing 1.6 million signatures. The government has also been grappling with serious security concerns around its GOV.UK One Login platform, which lost its certification earlier this year. Despite these challenges, the government has confirmed it is exploring a physical alternative to ensure digital inclusion for those without smartphones.
Sources: OBR, Computer Weekly, Freevacy, UK Government
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By Ali Nassar-Smith
